Climate Change, water scarcity, and Pakistan’s Economy
Adila Taj1, Umarah Khanum1
1Department of Environmental Science, International Islamic University Islamabad
The continuous rise in greenhouse gases due to technological advancements resulted rise in world temperature named global warming. The composition of climate from anthropogenic activities has been changed to such an extent that the global average temperature will continue to rise despite all the efforts for a sustainable future. According to IPCC 4th annual report, the global annual temperature will increase from 1.8℃ to 4.0℃ by the end of the 21st century.
This rise in temperature will also affect ocean circulation and hydrological cycles which lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, cyclones, sea level rise, and melting of polar ice caps. Due to its geographic position, Pakistan is the country most affected by climate change. Global warming will continue to threaten the water resources of Pakistan which, as a result, would threaten its food security. Pakistan is an agricultural country, and agriculture is considered the backbone of its economy, hence water scarcity would be devastating to its economy.
The Indus river and its five tributaries; Sutlej, Jhelum, Chenab, Kabul, and Ravi are the primary sources of the country’s surface water. Pakistan has low annual rainfall, with most regions receiving less than 200 millimeters. Monsoon rainfall is the most important source of water which has become unpredictable and cannot be used for irrigation purposes. Irrigation systems all over Pakistan depend on the river Indus for irrigation. Moreover, the changes in the intensity and variability of monsoon rainfall pose serious risks of floods followed by droughts and depletion of the water storage capacity of dams due to sedimentation.
Floods are a cause of huge economic loss for Pakistan which has long-standing impacts on the economy including the inflation in food prices. It can be seen that floods have become consistent in Pakistan since 2010 due to unpredictable monsoon rains which cause huge economic and life losses. Pakistan has not been able to come out of the effects of these floods until now.
Causes of water scarcity in Pakistan
- Climate change
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to water resources in Pakistan. Continuous rise in temperature results in extreme weather events like droughts, floods, and heat waves. The monsoon season in Pakistan changed due to climate changes, becoming intense and unpredictable, causing excessive rains, overflowing rivers, and dams, and resulting damage to infrastructure and human life.
- Mismanagement of water resources
In Pakistan, water management is inadequate. 90% of the water used in the agriculture sector’s activities is lost due to the usage of conventional farming methods.
- Overpopulation
Pakistan is the 5th most populated country in the world. The majority of Pakistan’s population relies on groundwater for irrigation and household purposes, and in order to meet this demand, groundwater is being withdrawn at a rate faster than it can be recharged, which has resulted in groundwater depletion.
Problems due to water scarcity
- Lack of drinking water
Presently, there are many places in Pakistan that do not have access to clean drinking water. The current rate at which the country is facing water scarcity will only increase water unavailability in other areas as well.
- Health issues
The shortage of clean drinking water is impacting the health of people. Lack of access to clean water leaves them with no choice but to drink polluted water that is causing water-borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, etc.
- Reduction in crop yield
As an agricultural nation, we rely primarily on crop productivity. The entire system of agriculture depends on water. But the water shortage will lead to a reduction in crop production resulting in various other impacts as well i.e., on the economy.
- Urbanization
Due to uneven distribution and access to water sources, people are moving towards urban areas for better facilities. This puts tremendous pressure on the water resources of an area where migration is occurring.
Effects on economy
- 80% of Pakistan’s exports rely on its agriculture sector. And 90% of the country’s water is used in agriculture. Water shortage will not only affect the 23% of the country’s GDP that relies on agriculture but also threaten the livelihoods of 42% of the population that depends on agriculture.
- In addition to exports, the agriculture sector is crucial for the country as well. If crop productivity is impacted due to water unavailability, the requirement of food for nation will have to be met through imports which in turn, will burden the economy.
- Livestock is a major source of income in rural areas, contributing 9.7% to the country’s GDP, and will be affected due to water shortage.
- Irrigation system depends on water. But having no water recycling and storage techniques, 30-50 percent of water is lost during the process. This also affects the economy.
Recommendations
Planning to mitigate climate-induced disasters can be tough because there is uncertainty in future climatic patterns. For long-term future planning in changing climate, the policymakers should know and understand changes in the cryosphere and related implications. (Ali et al., 2009). Therefore, it is essential to establish a joint committee including all stakeholders involved in managing water resources, especially in the areas of Pakistan where fresh water is available and is being threatened due to climate change. This text enlists some suitable recommendations that could be beneficial in managing water resources. water scarcity
- Create awareness of efficient and sustainable use of water resources specifically in the agriculture sector where most of the water is used in an unsustainable way because of the use of old and traditional farming practices.
- Government of Pakistan should initiate training programs for the farmers in order to educate them to use modern technology for farming practices. water scarcity
- Government should support and encourage research to assess long-term climatic changes and their impacts on water resources.
- Floods occur every year in the monsoon season in Pakistan since 2010 because of a lack of drainage systems and less water storage capacities to cope with this problem more and smaller dams should be constructed. water scarcity
- To manage the overflowing of dams it is recommended to increase the size of dam reservoirs by heightening the dams. It would be more economical than constructing a new dam.
- Investing more in developing technologies for water recycling should be encouraged at the government level.
- Techniques like rainwater harvesting and making sponge cities should be encouraged at household and commercial levels.
- Policymakers and water managers should make laws in order to strictly punish those factories involved in the contamination of water.
- Instead of hydroelectricity Pakistan should focus more on other energy sources like solar wind and biomass.
- Afforestation and reforestation programs could be helpful in balancing temperature to a great extent. water scarcity
Conclusion
Pakistan is facing serious consequences of climate change, among which water scarcity is a serious problem. It is not only a threat to people’s lives and the infrastructure of the country’s terms of floods, but also a burden on the already ailing economy. Agriculture, the backbone of the country’s economy, is majorly being affected by water scarcity. To resolve this issue, it is necessary for the government and people of Pakistan to develop a consensus about valuing this resource, its sustainable use and should practice different storage techniques. water scarcity
Reference
Ali, G., Hasson, S., and Khan, A. M. (2009). Climate Change; Implications and Adaptation of Water Resources in Pakistan. Research Report GCISC-RR-13 water scarcity
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